A bearish thesis on Circle Internet Group was published on Just Value's Substack. The company's shares were trading at $83.46 as of January 13. According to Yahoo Finance, CRCL's forward P/E ratio stood at 84.03.
Circle Internet Group operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications. It issues USDC and EURC, fully reserved and regulated stablecoins that support much of the tokenized-money economy. USDC is widely used across blockchains, exchanges, wallets, and institutional platforms.
Circle's revenues are largely derived from interest income generated by reserves backing its stablecoins. This means growth depends heavily on short-term interest rates and the total supply of USDC in circulation. When rates are high and stablecoin demand increases, revenue rises. When either factor declines, revenue falls.
A third external factor involves economics shared with distribution partners like Coinbase and Binance. These partners control major on- and off-ramps for USDC, giving them leverage in revenue-sharing negotiations. The more economics Circle concedes to maintain distribution reach, the less value flows to shareholders.
This creates a structural tension. Circle holds a systemically important position in the stablecoin landscape, benefiting from scale, brand trust, regulatory progress, and institutional integration. However, as a public company, it remains exposed to macro rate cycles, crypto sentiment, and partner bargaining power.
Previously, a bullish thesis on PayPal Holdings, Inc. by Sergey in May 2025 highlighted improving margins, strong EPS growth, and momentum across Braintree, Venmo, and BNPL. PayPal's stock price has depreciated approximately 14.71% since that coverage. The thesis still stands as execution remains solid. Just Value shares a similar emphasis on Circle's macro-driven model.
Circle Internet Group is not on the list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. According to database records, 29 hedge fund portfolios held CRCL at the end of the third quarter, down from 39 in the previous quarter.