Via Transportation, Inc. shares traded at $26.87 on January 13th, with a forward P/E ratio of 833.33 according to Yahoo Finance data. The company, which went public recently, has a market capitalization of approximately $2.4 billion.
A review of about 100 public contracts indicates that nearly all of Via's revenue comes from service hours, driver labor, and vehicle utilization rather than recurring software licenses. Major customers including LA Metro and Arlington, Texas have reduced spending, renegotiated pricing, or replaced Via's software with competing solutions like Spare Labs.
Much of Via's recent growth depends on temporary federal funding programs such as CMAQ and CRP, with deployments frequently shrinking or ending once subsidies expire. Portfolio churn closely tracks these grant roll-offs, while reported retention metrics appear artificially strong due to grant-backed minimum revenue commitments and favorable churn definitions.
Financial reporting further flatters the business, as Via books sizable upfront implementation fees and recognizes up to 18 months of software revenue early in contract lifecycles. This inflates reported ARR and early gross margins while obscuring weakening economics over time.
The company also excludes insurance costs from cost of revenue, placing them in G&A instead. This treatment boosts gross margins and differs from peers such as Uber and Lyft.
With COVID-era relief funding set to expire and agencies signaling that microtransit programs are unsustainable without subsidies, Via faces significant risk. Approximately 40% of microtransit projects fail within three years.
Ultimately, Via exhibits the economics of a labor-intensive, subscale transit contractor reliant on temporary subsidies and aggressive accounting. At valuations comparable to Lyft's forward gross profit multiple, the stock could face as much as 60% downside according to the report.