China's trade surplus climbed to a record of almost $1.2 trillion in 2025, the government announced Wednesday. Customs data showed exports increased 5.5% for the year to $3.77 trillion, while imports remained steady at $2.58 trillion.
In December, exports grew 6.6% from a year earlier in dollar terms, exceeding economists' forecasts and November's 5.9% rise. Imports for the month rose 5.7% year-on-year.
The trade surplus first surpassed $1 trillion in November, reaching $1.08 trillion over the first eleven months of last year. The 2024 surplus was over $992 billion.
Exports to the United States fell 20% for the full year. Shipments to Africa surged 26%, while those to Southeast Asian countries jumped 13%. Exports to the European Union increased 8%, and to Latin America, 7%.
"We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026," said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.
Auto exports surged 21% in 2025 to more than 7 million units, driven by electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, an industry group reported Wednesday. Mechanical and electrical items were the largest export category, rising 8.4% from a year earlier.
Exports of grain and fertilizer increased, while shipments of furniture, clothing, shoes and other labor-intensive products declined.
Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs administration, told reporters in Beijing that China faces a "severe and complex" external trade environment in 2026. He said China’s "foreign trade fundamentals remain solid."
HSBC economists Erin Xin and Taylor Wang wrote in a note Wednesday that "even if exports sustain neutral or positive growth this year, more of China’s growth drivers will need to come from domestic demand."
"We expect domestic demand growth to stay tepid," said Rong of BNP Paribas. "In fact, the policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker than last year -- in particular the fiscal subsidy program for consumer goods."
Domestic passenger car sales rose 6% in 2025, according to industry figures, but fell toward the year's end as subsidies were scaled back or phased out in some areas.
Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, forecasts that China’s exports will grow about 3% in 2026. With slow import growth, he expects China's trade surplus to remain above $1 trillion this year.