ConocoPhillips stock closed at $98.19 on Friday, January 16. The company's dividend yield currently stands at 3.42%, which is below its five-year average. Based on this yield, the stock has a price target of at least $126.65, representing a 29% increase from its current price.
On November 6, 2025, ConocoPhillips raised its quarterly dividend by 7.69% to 84 cents from 78 cents. This translates to an annual dividend per share of $3.36. Since that announcement, COP stock has been gradually moving higher.
Yahoo Finance reports that COP has maintained an average dividend yield of 2.53% over the last five years. Morningstar data shows a five-year historical average of 2.29%, while Seeking Alpha indicates an average of 3.14%. The combined average from these sources is approximately 2.653%.
If the stock's yield adjusts to this average level, the calculated price target would be $126.65. Even with a more conservative assumption of a 3.0% yield, the price target would be $112.00, still 14% above the current trading price.
Investors have the opportunity to generate additional income by selling short out-of-the-money put options. In a December 19, 2025 Barchart article, the author suggested selling a put contract expiring January 23, 2026 at the $88.00 strike price. That contract received a premium of $1.13 per put, providing an immediate yield of 1.284%.
As of January 16, the premium for that put contract has declined to $0.12 at the midpoint and is expected to expire worthless. For the February 20, 2026 expiry period, the $92.50 strike price put contract shows a midpoint premium of $1.63. This represents a yield of 1.762% for sellers.
A more conservative approach involves the $90.00 strike price put expiring February 20, which has a midpoint premium of $1.05. This provides sellers with a yield of 1.167%. By shorting both contracts, investors could achieve an average yield of approximately 1.4645% over the next month.
Both contracts have delta ratios between -0.18 and -0.26, indicating about a 22% probability that COP will decline to between $90 and $92.50. The primary risk involves the stock falling below $90.00 before the February 20 expiration, potentially resulting in unrealized capital losses.