A cryptocurrency prediction market indicates low probability that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of former President Donald Trump's tariffs, with a decision anticipated on Wednesday.
On the Polymarket platform, odds that the Supreme Court overturns or vacates a prior court decision which found Trump's tariff policy unconstitutional stood at 28%. This figure increased from 22% a week earlier but remains well below the all-time highs recorded in September 2025.
More than $2.6 million has been wagered on the outcome, positioning it as one of the most actively traded contracts on the Polygon-based platform.
Separately, bettors on the Kalshi platform see a 32% chance that the court rules in Trump's favor.
The Supreme Court has scheduled an "Opinion Day" for Friday. Bettors on Kalshi assign 53% odds that an opinion will be released before January 16.
Trump stated earlier this week that the United States could face significant economic consequences if the Supreme Court rules against the federal government on this issue.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that the Treasury possesses sufficient funds to cover any potential tariff refunds should the court rule against the government.
Trump has utilized the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify imposing tariffs on various countries since taking office in January 2025, aiming to address trade imbalances.
A U.S. appeals court ruled last year that Trump overstepped his authority by employing emergency powers to enact broad tariffs.
Economist Mark Zandi commented that the labor market is struggling under the pressure of tariffs and that a Supreme Court ruling could provide the fastest route to restoring job growth.