First Solar, Inc. shares traded at $241.36 on January 13, according to market data. The solar technology company manufactures and sells photovoltaic solar modules using thin film semiconductor technology.
A bullish thesis posted on r/Valueinvesting by user sagotici emphasized the company's position. The thesis stated that First Solar is often misunderstood by the market as dependent on residential solar incentives like the Investment Tax Credit.
The real driver is Section 45X, which provides manufacturing tax credits. This allows First Solar to earn roughly $0.17 per watt for producing panels in the United States, creating a margin advantage independent of rooftop demand.
The company is positioned in utility scale solar, where long-term cost per kilowatt hour matters more than headline price per watt. Most new demand is coming from large-scale projects tied to data centers, many built in hot regions like Texas, Arizona, and Nevada.
In these environments, traditional silicon panels lose efficiency as temperatures rise. First Solar's cadmium telluride technology performs better, generating 5% to 10% more energy annually and resulting in a superior levelized cost of energy over decades.
Concerns around project delays, such as the Esmeralda cancellation, are misplaced, the thesis noted. Fragmentation into multiple smaller projects has increased urgency among developers who cannot afford customs delays tied to Chinese panel imports.
First Solar benefits from having no exposure to polysilicon supply chains, which are heavily concentrated in China and subject to forced labor enforcement at U.S. borders. Its closed-loop recycling program recovers over 90% of semiconductor materials.
Looking ahead, the acquisition of Evolar and ongoing tandem perovskite pilots point to a path toward higher efficiency in the next generation of panels. The company's backlog is sold out through 2029.
Previously, a bullish thesis on First Solar by Long-Term Pick in March 2025 highlighted strong financial performance, capacity expansion, and supportive policy. FSLR's stock price has appreciated by approximately 77.23% since that coverage.
User sagotici shares a similar thesis but emphasizes manufacturing credits, heat performance, and utility scale dominance. According to database information, 68 hedge fund portfolios held FSLR at the end of the third quarter, up from 67 in the previous quarter.