Intel stock has gained about 26.27% year to date as of Saturday morning, Jan. 17, according to Yahoo Finance. The S&P 500 ETF SPY is up 1.43% in the same period.
Two analyst notes boosted the stock. On January 5, Melius Research upgraded Intel to buy from hold with a $50 price target. On January 13, KeyBanc upgraded Intel to overweight from sector weight with a $60 price target.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh wrote that Intel’s foundry reached yield rates more than 60% on its 18A manufacturing process, which are sufficient to ramp Panther Lake. Vinh’s research indicates Intel Foundry Services has landed Apple as a customer on 18A for low-end M-series processors, with production expected in 2027.
Intel’s Q4 earnings will be released on January 22. Several other analysts have updated their opinions on Intel stock.
Citi upgraded Intel's rating from sell to neutral and raised the price target from $29 to $50. Citi analysts believe Intel will benefit from tightness in TSMC's advanced packaging supply. The firm wants to see Intel reverse its share losses before recommending investors buy the stock.
Jefferies reiterated a hold rating and raised the Intel stock price target from $40 to $45. The firm expects Intel's full-year commentary to be relatively disappointing.
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a neutral rating and raised Intel's stock price target from $40 to $49. Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley reiterated an equal weight rating and raised Intel's stock price target from $35 to $45.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and his team also updated their opinion on Intel stock ahead of earnings. Arya’s team hosted an investor meeting at CES with Intel investor relations representative John Pitzer. The team now expects in-line or better Q4 sales and gross margins of $13.4 billion and 36.5% respectively. Analysts said that healthy server sales should offset the initial impact of rising memory prices on PCs.
In a research note, Arya reiterated an underperform rating for INTC stock and the target price of $40, based on a 3.5 multiple of his enterprise value-to-sales ratio estimate for 2027, in line with the historical range of 1.7 to 4.
Analysts noted downside risks for INTC: lower than yield/ramp at Intel Foundry, particularly for its new 18A and upcoming 14A nodes; lack of material external foundry customer in wafer processing; weaker-than-expected trends in a mature PC market; accelerated share loss to major CPU competitors.
Upside risks for INTC: key external foundry packaging/wafer deals that could significantly boost sales/utilization; greater-than-expected yields/ramps at 18A and upcoming 14A nodes, resulting in a greater GM/utilization profile; stronger-than-expected PC market from Windows 10 refresh or AI uplift; geopolitical tensions boosting sentiment for domestic manufacturing asset.