Mercado Bitcoin, a major cryptocurrency exchange based in São Paulo, has published a report detailing six trends it believes will shape the crypto market in 2026.
The report points to significant expansion in stablecoins, tokenization, altcoin exchange-traded funds, and AI-driven trading as key forces.
Analysts at the firm estimate that bitcoin could reach 14% of gold's market capitalization by the end of 2026. The current ratio stands at 5.65%, which would imply a more than doubling of bitcoin's price, all else being equal.
"In the 'Bitcoin Valuation Framework,' we use, among other methods, a Total Addressable Market approach to estimate BTC's theoretical value," the report states. "Instead of forcing traditional cash flow models onto a monetary asset, we start with the global store-of-value market, use gold as the primary benchmark, and project what fraction of this market Bitcoin might capture under different adoption scenarios."
This 14% figure is not a guess, MB added, but results from a valuation methodology developed with researchers from the University of California. The firm's base scenario sees bitcoin achieving this share of gold's market cap.
The report cites bitcoin's growing role as a store of value compared to gold, which faces logistical challenges. Institutional treasuries have accumulated over 1.09 million bitcoin, showing it is no longer a niche asset, the firm said. Bitcoin's digital, borderless nature attracts investors seeking alternatives to traditional safe havens.
For stablecoins, MB expects the sector to grow to a market capitalization of $500 billion in 2026. The stablecoin market is currently at $307 billion, with Tether's USDT commanding 60.5%, according to DeFiLlama data. It started 2025 around $205 billion.
"[Stablecoins] play an essential role as a source of liquidity for the sector, facilitating the rapid and secure movement of resources without exposure to the volatility of other digital assets," the report adds. It notes that in 2025, total market capitalization grew nearly 50% year over year, a trend attributed to broader adoption and regulatory clarity, particularly in the U.S.
Growth will partly come from stablecoins not tied to the U.S. dollar. Stablecoins have evolved from trading tools into payment instruments across countries and sectors.
Regarding altcoin ETFs, after U.S. regulators began approving ETFs for crypto assets beyond bitcoin and ether in late 2025, funds tied to altcoins like XRP, solana, and chainlink started attracting capital. XRP ETFs alone now manage roughly $1.47 billion in assets, with solana ETFs adding another $1.09 billion, according to SoSoValue data.
MB projects this market segment will grow to at least $10 billion by the end of 2026, with XRP and SOL expected to account for around 80% of new inflows. The analysis considers altcoin ETFs those that do not include bitcoin or ether and are listed on regulated markets.
The global volume of tokenized real-world assets is expected to increase by 200%, surpassing $54 billion. In 2025, regulatory advances across major markets enabled this growth. The European Union permitted larger volumes of tokenized transactions on permissioned blockchains, while the U.S. recognized blockchain-based records for asset transfers.
Major institutional players, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree, have launched their own tokenized funds, while other institutions have started studying potential launches. MB points to these developments as evidence that tokenization is becoming a viable path for bringing traditional assets into blockchain-based systems.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are highlighted as the fastest-growing segment. MB forecasts that capital locked in these markets could reach $20 billion by the end of 2026, up from an estimated figure under $1 billion today.
The report attributes this expansion to global events like the 2026 World Cup and presidential elections in major economies, as well as the rise of prediction markets tied to entertainment and climate-related scenarios. These platforms allow users to trade on the probability of future events.
To MB’s analysts, these markets’ peer-to-peer model and aligned incentives between users and platforms will also contribute to their growth.
MB also expects blockchain-integrated AI agents to play a larger role. These agents, designed to make autonomous decisions and execute transactions, are beginning to leverage new technical standards like x402 and ERC-8004 to meet demands for transparency, traceability, and micropayments.
The report estimates that the volume traded by such AI agents will exceed $1 million per day in 2026, quadrupling from current levels.