Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated earlier this month that the company does not anticipate Beijing will officially determine how many of its H200 chips are permitted into China. He indicated that individual purchase orders will decide the revenue Nvidia can generate from the country.
Huang's remarks show Nvidia itself is uncertain about the number of H200 chips it can sell in the world's second-largest economy. This uncertainty, along with rising competitive pressures, makes the stock one to hold for now.
On January 6, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said the company had formally applied for approval to sell H200 chips in China, but Beijing had not yet decided on the application. Nvidia has projected $500 billion in revenue from its Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin chips by 2026 but has not provided a specific estimate for China revenue that year.
Adding to the unclear situation, China reportedly ordered several companies recently to delay ordering chips from Nvidia. A 15% tax imposed by the Trump administration on the chip giant's exports to China is also expected to significantly impact its profit margins.
Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, a 22% increase from the same period last year. Net income rose 21% year-over-year to $31.9 billion. Over the 12 months ending January 13, NVDA stock climbed 40%, though it fell 2.3% in the three months ending that same day.
The company's shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 41.7x. Analysts on average expect Nvidia's earnings per share to increase 51% this year and 57% next year.
As reported by the Wall Street Journal on December 5, 2025, Nvidia faces growing challenges, including from its own customers like Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft, which are developing their own AI chips. These hyperscalers are reportedly seeking to improve margins and reduce reliance on Nvidia.
Advanced Micro Devices appears to be emerging as a significant competitor, with sources noting its AI offerings are competitive on key hardware specifications. Reports also indicate Meta held talks about purchasing billions of dollars worth of Google's Tensor Processing Unit chips, suggesting Nvidia could face substantial threats from Google, Amazon, and Microsoft.