On Tuesday, Nvidia shares drew attention following reports that China would permit its technology companies to use Nvidia's H200 chips for certain purposes. Sources speaking anonymously to The Information on January 13 indicated one such use case involved university research or development labs.
By Wednesday morning, however, conflicting reports emerged. Customs agents stated that H200 chips are "not permitted" to enter China.
Nvidia stock was down 2% at the time of reporting.
The initial reports of partial approval were viewed as significant for the Nasdaq-listed company, potentially adding to its earnings and revenue estimates. In November, the Santa Clara, California-based firm projected its top line would grow 65% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, excluding substantial revenue from China. Asia's largest economy previously accounted for about one-fifth of Nvidia's total revenue, so even limited recovery could accelerate sales growth in 2026. The subsequent reports denying permission have removed this optimism regarding enhanced financial performance.
Earlier this week, Bernstein senior analyst Stacy Rasgon maintained Nvidia shares as a "top pick" for 2026, stating "AI spending currently shows no signs of slowing." Rasgon sees NVDA reaching $275 within the next 12 months, suggesting potential upside of 50% from current levels. In a recent CNBC interview, he described the AI stock as "inexpensive" given the company's margin remains sustainably above 70%. Technically, Nvidia sits decisively above its 200-day moving average, indicating its broader uptrend remains intact.
Other Wall Street analysts align with Rasgon's constructive view. According to Barchart, the consensus rating on Nvidia stock remains "Strong Buy," with a mean target of about $255 signaling potential upside of roughly 40%.