Nvidia prepares to release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 25, 2026, with investors shifting focus from hardware sales volume to implementation speed. The company's stock has shown minimal movement recently, gaining only 2% over the past three months and remaining essentially flat year-to-date despite a 37% return in 2025.
Analysts anticipate the earnings report will serve as a major catalyst for the semiconductor sector this year. Market observers are looking beyond headline revenue figures for concrete evidence regarding three key areas: smooth Blackwell production increases, Vera Rubin architecture development, and growing high-margin AI software sales.
CEO Jensen Huang previously described Blackwell demand as "insane" in late 2025. The current question centers on supply chain capacity to fulfill these orders. Recent reports indicate Nvidia has secured over 50% of Taiwan Semiconductor's advanced packaging output for 2026, potentially representing 800,000-850,000 wafers.
TSMC plans to expand its monthly advanced packaging capacity to 120,000-130,000 wafers by late 2026, up from approximately 75,000 at the end of 2025. This expansion could alleviate previous supply constraints that affected 2025 results.
At CES 2026, Huang confirmed the Vera Rubin architecture remains on schedule for a late 2026 launch. The Rubin platform, currently in sampling stage, features next-generation HBM4 memory designed to improve power efficiency and inference throughput compared to the B200 series.
Analysts expect Nvidia to provide clear shipment timelines during the earnings call, with Blackwell projected to reach full-scale volume maturity by the end of the April quarter. Confirmation that the Blackwell Ultra refresh remains on track for the second half of 2026 would address concerns about potential demand gaps.
The transition involves more than individual chips, extending to complete systems like the liquid-cooled GB200 NVL72 racks. These systems represent significant price increases compared to standalone GPUs, with individual B200 GPUs costing $30,000-$40,000 while complete racks reach $2-$3 million.
Bank of America analysts noted in a research memo that "Vera Rubin is now in full production, on track for 2H26. We continue to highlight NVDA's continued dominance in AI compute, networking, system, and ecosystem."
Goldman Sachs analysts observed that "management noted ongoing upward pressure to its input costs, including HBM memory and many other components. However, in 2026, Nvidia believes it can hold gross margins in the mid-70% range as higher pricing and other cost reductions offset these increased input costs."
Software monetization represents another focal point, particularly growth in Nvidia Inference Microservices and AI Blueprints. These software offerings, described as the "operating system" for Agentic AI, could provide recurring revenue streams that reduce dependence on hardware sales cycles.
NVIDIA AI Enterprise software costs approximately $4,500 per GPU annually. The company's introduction of "Digital Workers" powered by NIMs creates new enterprise applications, combining Blackwell hardware with software frameworks that enable autonomous agent functionality.