Rio Tinto Group and Glencore Plc are holding preliminary discussions about a possible merger, according to multiple reports. The talks remain early and non-binding, with no formal proposal or timetable disclosed.
A potential tie-up would rank among the largest transactions ever attempted in the mining sector. The combined company would be valued at roughly $260 billion and would control a broad mix of iron ore, copper, and other industrial metals.
Interest in the scenario has increased after BHP Group ruled out a competing bid. With a market capitalization of around $168 billion, BHP was the only miner with the balance sheet and operational reach to pursue a rival transaction.
The structure of the two companies explains why the idea continues to resurface. Rio’s iron ore business generates steady and predictable cash flow. Glencore has spent the past decade building one of the industry’s largest copper portfolios while maintaining a global trading operation that handles large volumes of physical metals.
Together, those businesses would cover both production and distribution at scale, a combination few miners can match. For Rio, a deal with Glencore would also bring a commercial advantage. Glencore operates one of the most powerful commodity marketing and trading businesses in the mining sector.
Copper is key here. Demand continues to rise from power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and data centers. Supply growth remains limited. Glencore’s copper assets and expansion plans would materially increase Rio’s exposure to a market that is already tight.
Prices seem to track with this. Copper has climbed more than 25% over the past three months and reached record levels above $13,000 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange. Inventories remain low by historical standards.
Beyond operating scale, the structure of Glencore’s portfolio opens up options to unlock shareholder value. The company’s carbon-heavy businesses, particularly coal, generate substantial cash but continue to weigh on valuation.
Analysts cited by the Financial Times have argued that a post-merger break-up could materially lift shareholder value by allowing the metals business to be valued on its own merits, rather than alongside coal. Rio and BHP both trade at lower multiples than copper-focused peers.
Glencore has been here before. The company has previously reviewed options to separate its coal business, only to see shareholders decide to keep the assets because of the cash they generate. Any deal with Rio would put that question back on the table.
Regulators would also be involved early. Authorities in Australia and Europe would examine copper concentration, particularly in regions where both companies already have significant operations. Glencore’s trading business would draw additional scrutiny because of its role in physical markets and price setting.
The two companies also run very different models. Glencore’s operations are built around trading and risk management, while Rio focuses on long-life mining assets and production discipline.
The talks come as the mining sector accelerates its push toward consolidation. Producers are seeking scale to manage rising costs, longer project timelines, and tighter capital conditions. A proposed tie-up between Anglo American and Teck Resources is one example.
Even if the talks go no further, they reflect where the industry is headed. Copper assets with long reserve lives are becoming harder to secure. Cash flow is increasingly important as project costs rise and timelines stretch.