Russia's oil and gas budget revenues are expected to fall by 46% this month compared to the same period last year, according to calculations by Reuters. The news agency based its figures on production data, refining rates, and domestic and international sales.
For January, these revenues are projected at 420 billion rubles, approximately $5.42 billion. The decline is attributed to lower international oil prices and a stronger Russian currency. The ruble appreciated over 30% in December 2025 from a year earlier, which reduced the ruble-denominated price of oil used for tax calculations by up to 53%.
The oil and gas sector contributes roughly a quarter of Russia's total budget income. Western officials view this share as significant enough to target with sanctions, aiming to impair Russia's capacity to finance its military operations in Ukraine. To date, 19 packages of European Union sanctions and multiple rounds of U.S. measures have not altered Russia's military plans. The EU continues to purchase Russian oil and gas, including through third countries, despite imposing restrictions on these imports.
Reuters reported that, based on current price assumptions, Russia's federal budget is anticipated to receive about 8.96 trillion rubles from the industry this year, equivalent to around $120 billion. This would be an increase from last year's 8.48 trillion rubles, or about $110 billion, but still represents a 24% decrease from the previous year.
A further reduction has occurred since, largely due to U.S. sanctions imposed in November that targeted Russia's two largest crude oil exporters and their customers. Consequently, clients of Rosneft and Lukoil in India have shifted to other energy trading firms and suppliers. However, the decrease in shipments to India has been less severe than anticipated. Bloomberg reported flows exceeded 1 million barrels per day in December, against expectations of 800,000 barrels daily.