Singapore's central bank is anticipated to maintain its current monetary policy stance when it meets on Thursday, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. Out of 16 economists surveyed, 15 forecast the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will hold settings unchanged this week.
The MAS last adjusted policy in January and April of last year before leaving it steady in July and October. The decision comes as Singapore's economy grew 4.8% in 2025, exceeding a government forecast from November of around 4.0% and an earlier estimate of 1.5% to 2.5%.
Economist Intelligence Unit Asia analyst Tay Qi Hang pointed to Singapore's electronics purchasing managers' index, which registered 50.9 in December, as evidence the technology cycle has maintained momentum. "AI-related demand and rising memory chip prices should continue to benefit the semiconductor sector in coming months," he said. Tay added that the strong fourth-quarter growth performance, alongside core inflation remaining just above 1% in November, has reduced near-term pressure for policy easing.
Standard Chartered chief economist Edward Lee stated there is no urgency for the MAS to act this month with inflation under control. However, Lee said he expects the central bank to tighten policy at its April review as the inflation cycle bottoms out and trade uncertainties ease.
In contrast, Bank of America economists suggested in a Friday report that the MAS could tighten policy as soon as Thursday's review. They cited signs inflation is strengthening following December's data, also released on Friday. The economists noted the data showed price increases in travel-related and other components more than offset a fall in raw food and beverage prices. They said the MAS could raise its core inflation forecast range for 2026 by 50 basis points to 1% to 2%, from its current range of 0.5% to 1.5%. The MAS will update its inflation forecasts in Thursday's monetary policy statement.
Singapore manages monetary policy by allowing the Singapore dollar to fluctuate against the currencies of its main trading partners within an undisclosed band, known as the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER). The central bank adjusts settings through three levers: the slope, mid-point, and width of this band.
Major central banks globally are expected to hold interest rates steady in the near term. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting but signaled a pause in easing as it awaits clarity on the job market, inflation, and the economy. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering rates more aggressively. The European Central Bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, said in January it will not debate any rate change in the near term if the economy stays on course. Uncertainties about the Federal Reserve's independence remain a financial market concern.