TotalEnergies said on Tuesday that increased oil and gas production and stronger refining margins likely offset a drop of more than $10 per barrel in oil prices during the fourth quarter of 2025.
"Once again, despite a year-on-year decline of more than $10/b in oil prices, the cash flow from business segments this quarter is expected to remain at the same level as last year, supported by accretive Upstream production growth and continued improvement of Downstream results in the fourth quarter," the company stated in a trading update.
The French supermajor anticipates its fourth-quarter oil and gas production rose by 5% compared to the same period last year. This is expected to contribute to nearly 4% growth for the full year, exceeding the guidance of more than 3%. The company will report its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 11.
In its integrated LNG business, TotalEnergies sees results and cash flow aligning with the third quarter of 2025. Higher LNG production, following the end of a turnaround at Ichthys LNG, and sales are projected to offset a 5% annual decline in the average LNG price.
Refining & Chemicals earnings and cash flow are expected to jump. The company attributed this to "the good operational performance of the units enabling the capture of the increase of more than 30% of the margins." Specifically, the European refining margin for TotalEnergies' assets soared by 231% from a year earlier to $85.7 per ton in the fourth quarter.
This update from TotalEnergies stands in contrast to warnings from other major oil firms about their fourth-quarter performance.
Exxon flagged early this month an $800 million to $1.2 billion hit to its fourth-quarter upstream earnings compared to Q3. It also noted that lower industry margins could reduce earnings in its chemicals products division by up to $400 million.
Shell warned of a weak chemicals and products business for Q4, expecting the division to swing to a loss due to lower chemicals margins.
BP expects to book up to $5 billion in impairments for the fourth quarter, mostly related to its energy transition businesses. The company also reported that oil trading was weak and gas trading was average at the end of 2025.