President Donald Trump endorsed the "Credit Card Competition Act" on January 12, urging lawmakers to support the bipartisan bill. He wrote on social media that it would "stop the out of control Swipe Fee ripoff."
Markets reacted quickly. Visa shares dropped 4.7% in morning trading that day. Mastercard fell 5.2% in the same session. This marked the worst daily performance for both stocks in over six months.
The policy risk extends beyond the interest rate debate. On January 9, Trump proposed capping credit card rates at 10% for one year. The national average rate is 19.7%. That earlier proposal pushed large bank stocks down 1% to 3% as investors recalculated consumer lending profits.
For transaction-focused networks like Visa, swipe fees are a direct pressure point. Visa shares fell 1.9% on Jan. 12 after the interest rate cap proposal. The Credit Card Competition Act would force large banks to offer merchants additional, lower-cost routing choices beyond Visa and Mastercard's current setup.
Visa's stock is down roughly 6.3% year-to-date as investors weigh political noise around swipe fees and regulation. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock is up about 3.6%.
Visa trades at about 26.8x forward earnings, more than double the sector's roughly 11.5x forward multiple. The company reported fiscal 2025 GAAP net income of $20.1 billion ($10.20 per share) on $40 billion in net revenue. Non-GAAP net income was $22.5 billion ($11.47 per share). Revenue rose about 11% to 12% on a constant-currency basis.
In fiscal Q4 alone, Visa posted $5.1 billion in GAAP profit ($2.62 per share) and $5.8 billion in non-GAAP profit ($2.98 per share) on $10.7 billion of revenue. Payments volume, cross-border activity, and processed transactions all remained strong. That cash generation funded $6.1 billion of buybacks and dividends in the quarter and $22.8 billion for the full year.
Visa's collaboration with Fiserv connects Visa Intelligent Commerce and the Trusted Agent Protocol to Fiserv's agentic ecosystem. The company says it has completed hundreds of secure, agent-initiated transactions with partners, setting up 2026 as the point when agent-driven payments start moving from testing into broader real-world use.
The Lumanu partnership integrates Visa Direct to extend real-time payments to creators and contractors in more than 195 countries and territories.
For Visa's upcoming earnings on Jan. 29, analysts expect earnings of $3.14 per share versus $2.75 a year ago, implying about 14.18% year-over-year growth. For full fiscal year 2026, consensus sits at $12.81 per share versus $11.47 previously, an 11.68% increase.
Bank of America recently upgraded V stock from "Neutral" to "Buy" and set a $382 price target. HSBC upgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" and raised its target from $335 to $389. Across the full analyst group, all 36 analysts surveyed rate Visa a consensus "Strong Buy." The mean price target is $403.09, implying about 22.5% upside from the current level.