The US oil and gas industry has reduced its workforce by 40% over the past decade, a period marked by record production levels. These jobs are not expected to come back.
Historically, higher oil prices led to increased drilling and hiring in this cyclical industry. That connection has weakened since the mid-2010s shale bubble burst, following years of poor investor returns.
New technologies for faster, cheaper drilling, corporate mergers, and robots replacing workers have led to the loss of roughly 250,000 jobs since employment peaked in 2014. Production, however, rose by 50% in that time.
In 2025, payrolls remain at a three-year low even as output hits new highs and a president supportive of drilling returns to the White House.
"This industry has always been cyclical. You ride the wave when it’s good, and you brace for the downturn," said Karr Ingham, president of the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers. "But what’s different now is, even when prices recover, we don’t see the same hiring bounce we used to."
This shift means fewer opportunities for workers like Shaun Carter, a geologist laid off in 2019 when his Oklahoma-based exploration company suddenly closed.
Carter took a truck driving job from Houston, thinking it was temporary. Over six years later, he is still driving, and his hopes of returning to the oil sector are fading.
"My hopes aren’t very high," Carter said from his truck at a loading dock.
After the 2014 price crash, investors pressured companies to prioritize profits over growth, sparking consolidation and job cuts. Sector mergers and acquisitions have surpassed $500 billion since early 2023, a more than 20% increase from the prior three years, according to Bloomberg calculations. Major firms like Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips, and Exxon Mobil Corp. all announced job reductions in 2025 as crude prices fell.
US producers are now pumping a record 13.8 million barrels of crude daily, using less than a third of the active rigs from 2014. Each rig produces about four times more oil than a decade ago, a result of powerful equipment, refined techniques, automation, and incentives for faster drilling. Ingham calls this "brutally efficient."
Since taking office last year, President Donald Trump has prioritized increasing US oil and gas output by easing environmental rules and opening more federal land and waters to drilling. However, experts question whether expanding offshore drilling will create new jobs.
"Those rigs will be unmanned in the future," said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, an energy professor at the University of Houston. "They’ll be entirely run by robots and automation, with much of it handled onshore. We’re likely to see a very different oil and gas industry — far fewer jobs, and the remaining ones out of harm’s way."
With oil around $60 a barrel, producers in some regions are near breakeven levels, high enough to keep wells operating but too low to boost profits significantly. This presents a challenge for Trump, who aims to support industry profitability while lowering gas prices for consumers.
Energy executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas stated oil prices need to be near $65 a barrel to justify drilling new wells. Prices have stayed below that for the past three months, and any increase would need to be sustained to spur more spending.
"There’s this squeeze of trying to wring out as much cost as possible," said Trey Cowan, an analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. "Labor is the first place that really takes the punch."
Partly due to these efficiencies, some producers cutting jobs are performing better than expected. In the latest quarter, ConocoPhillips' production exceeded its highest estimate despite lower capital spending. Similarly, Chevron increased output in the Permian Basin with fewer rigs.
Carter has nearly re-entered the industry several times. Most recently, Marathon Oil contacted him in May 2024 about a different opening after he was a runner-up for an earlier role. He expressed interest and was told to expect a follow-up call.
Days later, while driving his truck to a Costco in Tulsa, Oklahoma, Carter heard on the radio that ConocoPhillips had bid to buy Marathon. "I was like, ‘Oh no, I know what that means,’" Carter said. He never received another call about the position.