Increased oil production from the United States, Guyana, and Brazil over the past year has complicated OPEC's attempts to manage market balance and support prices.
OPEC's influence may face further challenges from U.S. involvement in Venezuela and President Donald Trump's proposals regarding the oil industry of the world's largest crude resource holder.
Venezuela, an OPEC member, holds an estimated 303 billion barrels of crude oil, surpassing reserves in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
Analysts note that U.S. control over these reserves and investment in Venezuela's struggling oil sector could significantly alter energy market dynamics in America's favor, reducing OPEC's global sway.
Restoring Venezuela's oil supply, currently below 1% of global daily demand, would require investments likely exceeding $100 billion and several years, contingent on new legal frameworks and security guarantees for investors.
At a White House meeting on Friday, executives from major U.S. oil firms responded cautiously to President Trump's plan for their investment in Venezuela's oil recovery.
Despite President Trump describing Venezuela's oil as a source of "tremendous wealth" for industry and "great wealth" for Americans, the reception was lukewarm.
"We've had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we've historically seen here," Exxon CEO Darren Woods told President Trump.
"If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it's uninvestable."
U.S. control over Venezuela's oil industry could shift power balances in oil markets, granting the U.S. greater long-term supply influence and potentially diminishing the clout of OPEC and the OPEC+ group, which includes Russia and Kazakhstan.
JPMorgan analysts stated in a Wall Street Journal report that this shift could enhance U.S. influence over oil markets, possibly maintaining lower price ranges, improving energy security, and reshaping international energy power dynamics.
Oil at $50 per barrel, a goal of President Trump since taking office a year ago, would impact oil revenues and non-oil investments in major OPEC producers like Saudi Arabia.
Sources familiar with Saudi thinking told the Journal that the Kingdom, the world's top crude exporter, expects Venezuela's recovery to be years and billions of dollars away.
Gulf delegates indicated to the publication that other Gulf producers anticipate reduced Venezuelan supply to China could increase Middle Eastern crude's share in Chinese purchases.
The U.S. pursuit of control over a third country's oil resources is disrupting the market and posing additional challenges to OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance.
President Trump aims for Venezuelan oil flows to further reduce oil and energy prices.
Sustained lower oil prices would affect revenues and economies of all OPEC+ producers, potentially limiting their supply and price management capabilities amid unpredictable U.S. actions. OPEC+ must now consider this factor in output decisions and assess price targets without provoking President Trump.